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Saturday, November 24, 2012

The Twinkie is Dead. Long Live the Twinkie.

Unless you live under a rock, you’ve heard that Hostess isgoing out of business. It’s possible that you are one of those who are making afortune selling Twinkies for hundreds of dollars. If so, great! I've never really been one to march against someone trying to make a buck. UnlessI’m buying from you.

The story, perpetuated by the same media that made you thinkMitt Romney and Barack Obama are different, is this: Hostess is going out ubbizzniz! Nozzz!!!!eleventy!!!1111! Twinkies will never be around again! This isworse than Zombieland!

My version: Ok, world. Take a deep breath. Yes, Hostess has filed for bankruptcy. But this does not mean what you think it means. Theconventional wisdom is that, when a company goes out of business, POOF!, all of its assets and productsvanish, never to be seen again on this earth. If this were the case, I wouldnot currently be waiting for a flight back to Michigan, to see my family. 

Airlines have been in and out of bankruptcy for years.Here’s the key: demand for flights has not gone down. I still want to flyaround the country to see friends and family. And so do you. Or maybe it’svacation that you like. Either way, you’re getting there by one of thegreatest human transportation machines that have ever existed, instead of horseand buggy, precisely because bankruptcy does NOT mean that in-demand thingsvanish.

Do you know any individuals or families that have filed for bankruptcy?Did they vanish as a result? Obviously, corporations are not people, but it’sinteresting to note that they don’t vanish, either. As Coyote often notes, bankruptcy is a process, notan end (and now I just feel like I'm reiterating what his post says). It’s a process that allows abusiness to try to reorganize so thatit may hold on for dear life. It ishopefully something that prevents death.

In a bankruptcy, someone is going to lose. Here’s the catch:most will lose less than they would if the firm went out of business. This processis supervised by an intermediary (a court) to make sure everyone is treatedfairly, and follows hundreds of years of precedent in who gets the most back.Hostess has stated their intent to sell all of their assets to the highestbidder. The formula for the Twinkie is an asset, and mostly likely will be boughtby someone.

Many of those employees will likely have a hard time findingjobs in their current cities. The lenders to Hostess will lose a lot of money. Butthe Twinkie is going to live. Calm your @$$ down.

And if you really want one, make your own.

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